In last week’s post, we delved into the the veto tendencies of top teams since the release of CS2 eight months ago. However, we used aggregated data without taking into account possible differences depending on the region. In this week’s post, we will try to understand how different regions perform when facing teams from the same or different parts of the world. In particular, we will try to answer the following questions:
- Is there any noticeable difference in win rate when teams from different regions face each other?
- Which maps are more likely to be removed in the first ban wave of a BO3 in each region?
- Which maps are more likely to be picked in a BO3 in each region?
- Which maps are more likely to be removed in the second ban wave of a BO3 in each region?
- Is there a difference in win rate in maps picked depending on the region?
Before looking at the results, there are a couple of issues that we need to address. Even though we have tried to include matches from all regions, it is evident that games with teams from Asia and Oceania are a minority. Therefore, the results of pairings with teams from these regions should be taken with a grain of salt. Regarding the regions chosen, we have split the data into six regions: Europe, East Europe (teams with a majority of players from Ukraine and Russia), Asia, Oceania, North America, and South America. Data was extracted manually from HLTV and a brief description of the matches included, including the total amount of matches for each region, can be found in my GitHub.
Is there any noticeable difference in win rate when teams from different regions face each other?
Europe farms minority regions
Before examining map veto tendencies, we aim to test whether the common assumption that Europe is the best region still holds. In the following figure, we present the overall win rate for each region-vs-region pairing. The X-axis represents the region whose win rate we are interested in, while the Y-axis corresponds to the region they are facing. Consequently, the diagonal win rate is 100% since, when two teams from the same region face each other, the given region cannot lose. Moreover, it is evident that the win rate in a given region-vs-region pairing and its opposite are correlated, as both win rates sum up to 100%.
Looking at the results, we can see that Europe performs extremely well against Oceania, North America and Asia. However, their win rate vs South American teams is lower than expected with only a 57.6% win rate. Additionally, Europe has a losing record compared against East Europe, with a 42.5% win rate. East Europe has positive win rates over all included regions, but their highest win rate is only 66.7% vs South America.
Asia only performs well against teams from South America, likely skewed by TheMongolz farming Furia. Oceania has only one game against teams from South America and Asia, so the 100% and 0% win rates do not represent real differences in performance. Recent good results from FlyQuest have slightly improved their win rate against teams from East Europe, North America, and Europe, but these rates remain relatively low. Finally, the rivalry between North America and South America favors South American teams, as was evident in the last RMR Qualifier for the Copenhagen Major.
Which maps are more likely to be removed in the first ban wave of a BO3 in each region?
Asia and East Europe really hate Vertigo
In this section and the next two, we will use the same approach adopted in the previous article. For those who did not read it or do not remember it, here is a brief overview:
When analyzing maps banned in the first ban wave, we focus on which maps are removed by either team and, therefore, not available to be picked later. We describe the first bans as the number of matches where a given map was vetoed in the first ban wave, divided by the total number of matches. This results in a percentage, which adds up to 200% since two maps are initially vetoed, and reflects which maps are most frequently being perma-banned by teams from each region.
When analyzing maps picked, we must consider that the pool of matches where a given map can be picked depends on the maps vetoed in the first ban wave. Consequently, the percentage of matches where a map is picked is estimated as the number of matches where a given map is picked by either team, divided by the number of matches where the given map was not vetoed in the first ban wave.
Finally, to estimate the percentage of bans for each map in the second ban wave, the pool of matches is reduced to those where the given map was neither banned in the first ban wave nor picked by either team. With all of this in mind, we can start answering our next set of questions.
Looking at the figure above, we can clearly see that some regions strongly dislike certain maps. Vertigo is the most banned map in Asia, being removed in almost 60% of matches. Oceania has a particularly different veto pattern, with Ancient and Overpass being the most frequently removed maps. In North America, Mirage is frequently banned, being removed in nearly 50% of matches. Europe, with a larger number of matches, provides smoother estimates where Anubis and Mirage are the most frequently removed maps, though the difference with other maps is not significant.
With this information in mind, it seems that Oceania would benefit the most from the removal of Overpass from the active map pool, whereas Asia and East Europe would benefit the most if Vertigo were removed instead.
Which maps are more likely to be picked in a BO3 in each region?
Virtus.Pro and East Europe lost their home map
Looking at the percentage each map gets picked when available, we can see some differences between regions. Starting from the top left, Asia prefers to play Mirage, Ancient, and Anubis, each with a pick rate above 40%. East Europe has the highest pick percentage for Overpass, at almost 30%, while Inferno and Vertigo are the least picked when available. Europe presents a fairly homogeneous pick rate for all maps, with the exception of Overpass, which has at least a 10% decrease in comparison to the other six maps.
North America gives priority to Mirage, Ancient, Overpass, Anubis, and Vertigo, leaving Inferno and especially Nuke in a secondary position in the map pool. Even though Oceania’s results may be biased, we can infer that they really like to play Ancient, followed by Vertigo and Anubis. Finally, South America focuses on Anubis and Nuke, followed by the trio of Ancient, Mirage, and Vertigo, with Inferno and Overpass being the least picked maps.
Which maps are more likely to be removed in the second ban wave of a BO3 in each region?
Overpass is the ugly duckling of the second ban wave
In this section, we will examine which maps are more frequently discarded in the second ban wave that selects the decider. In this case, we have a clear loser: Overpass is the most frequently removed map when available in East Europe, Europe, and Oceania, the second most frequent in South America, and the fourth most frequent in Asia and North America. Additionally, Vertigo is the map most likely to be removed when available in Asia, the second most likely in North America, and the third most likely in East Europe. Conversely, it is the least banned map when available in Oceania.
Inferno holds a fairly high position in all regions, varying between being the first (South America), the second (Oceania, Asia, East Europe, and Europe), or the third (North America) most likely map to be removed when available. This may explain why Valve has reworked significant portions of the map in recent updates, in addition to adjusting the duration and size of incendiary effects.
Is there a difference in win rate in maps picked depending on the region?
Asia shines on Nuke, North America on Vertigo
In the following figure, we examine how frequently a given team wins their map pick. Again, we must take the data from Oceania with a grain of salt due to the small sample size.
First of all, we can see that when the sample size is high enough and there is a good variety of teams, the difference in win rate for each map is fairly small within a given region. East Europe and Europe present approximately the same win rate for all maps, whereas Asia shows a higher win rate on Nuke and North America on Vertigo.
South America has higher win rates on Ancient, Mirage, and Vertigo, with Inferno and Overpass appearing as the least reliable maps. Oceania presents some extremely high values on Overpass and Vertigo, probably due to the very small number of matches played on those maps in the region.
The Journey So Far
Vertigo leaves the map pool, Dust2 comes back
Over the last two articles, we have studied veto tendencies since the release of CS2, revealing a fairly dynamic map pool where almost every map had its advocates. Additionally, we have detected veto tendencies that might explain why Overpass was removed. In this piece, we found that each region had specific preferences regarding map vetos, which may partly explain the differences observed in win rates for the different region-vs-region pairings.
Valve recently updated the active duty map pool, removing Overpass and adding Dust2. This change, along with the additional updates to Inferno, changes in the economy, and adjustments to molotovs and incendiaries will surely affect the map pool and how teams veto and pick different maps. Once there is enough new data, we will be able to update this analysis and check if the initial tendencies for the six maps that remain in the map pool persist or change, and how popular Dust2 becomes among the top teams.
