Will the open circuit kill the prestige of World Number 1?
The Counter-Strike scene has been abuzz with speculation over the consequences of Valve’s tournament rules, ranging from optimism for a truly open circuit to skepticism that the new system will allow new rosters to emerge and quickly climb the ranks. But what ranks we’re referring to and those ranks mean might be drastically about to change in 2025.
The HLTV rankings have been the de facto world rankings for almost a decade. Checking where your favorite team is ranked after a strong tournament result has become a regular habit of CS fans – as has checking your least favorite team’s ranking after they bomb out of a competition. Even players, such as Na’Vi’s Justinas “jL” Lekavicius, expressed their excitement at reaching the pinnacle of HLTV No.1 ranking.
However, HLTV’s No.1 might be about to lose its relevance. The reason all comes down to Valve’s open circuit, and its implications for 2025 onwards.
Valve Regional Standings
The “Valve Regional Standings” or “VRS” will be the focus of every professional Counter-Strike organization from 2025 onwards, with VRS-based invites determining the vast majority of Tier-1 tournament spots. Based on currently announced tournaments, only 43 spots in Tier-1 tournaments are up for grabs in 2025 through qualifiers. The rest will be decided by VRS, most notably the 32 invite spots per major. With so much at stake through VRS, it seems inevitable that community focus will shift to the ranking.
Just a reminder that Passion UA would not have been invited to this event if the 2025 VRS system was used.
— Josip Brtan (@brcho_) November 24, 2024
Stories like this are by far the best bit about the RMRs and what makes them special. https://t.co/d2c6iMee0u
How VRS works
A roster’s VRS score is generated by a weighted scoring of the following metrics:
- Bounty Offered: Prize money earned (scaled relative to the Top 5 earning rosters).
- Bounty Collected: The prize money of teams beaten.
- Opponent Network: Distinct number of rosters beaten by teams you subsequently beat.
- LAN factor: Binary modifier that rewards LAN victories.
Bounty Offered, Bounty Collected, and Opponent Network are calculated using the top 10 most advantageous scores of their type. All metrics listed are subject to sub-modifiers. The most significant of these is Age Weight which will aggressively degrade older results to lessen their impact on the rankings. For example, Team Spirit’s $200,000 winnings from the BLAST Spring Finals in London are worth an adjusted $58,670.54 on the 30th of October Valve Rankings update. Additionally, these factors are adjusted by Event Weight, a metric used to reward better performance at more prestigious events.
Once a score is generated from the above factors, an Elo-type adjustment is made called the “head-to-head adjustment”. The effect is generally minor, but it can significantly reward teams who repeatedly beat higher-ranked rosters or punish teams who lose often to markedly lesser opposition. Elo is not capped to the 10 best results, meaning that teams can theoretically “grind” Elo by achieving strong recent head-to-head results.
When reviewing these metrics, we can therefore imagine the ideal tournament in order to earn more Valve ranking points: A LAN tournament with a large prize pool, which contains strong teams allowing for greater bounty collected and opponent network. As the circuit is now open, teams are free to plan their calendar accordingly, mix and match ESL, BLAST, PGL, FISSURE, StarLadder, Thunderpick or Skyesports events to maximize their chances of earning Valve Ranking points to chase that coveted World Number 1.
In reality, a dichotomy is already emerging: ESL & BLAST and the other tournament organizers (TOs).
The end of partner leagues
ESL & BLAST events have dominated Tier-1 Counter-Strike for the last five years owing their attractive packages to esports organizations. Utilising partner models based on revenue share as the driving force for team loyalty and attendance, they were able to carve out the calendar between themselves in what has been called the “closed circuit”.
Valve’s “Tournament Operation Requirements” outline the provisions for ranked tournaments, several of which directly dismantled ESL and BLAST’s previous models to create an open circuit. Teams for Tier-1 events must be invited based on VRS (3.1.1/3.2.1), have no exclusivity agreements with a TO (5.1), give equal opportunity for attending teams to earn revenue share and disclose any other compensation such as appearance fees (4.3).
Without the ability to directly invite partners, BLAST has outlined their incentive model for next year in the hope of garnering top team attendance at their events. It includes $4 million in participation fees and a pool dedicated to the “frequent flyer programme”, in which teams who attend BLAST events will earn tokens which are then split into a relative share of $2 million at the end of the year. ESL has not detailed its financial package for teams, but the assumption in the space is that they will continue a revenue-sharing system.
Competing models
In contrast, PGL’s circuit announcement emphasized one aspect above all others: prize money. PGL announced 4 tournaments in 2025, each with a $1.25 million prize pool. Given that VRS is heavily built around prize money, it would seem natural that PGL’s events in Buenos Aires, Bucharest, Astana, and Belgrade would attract the top teams, luring them away from their previous partner TOs. Additionally, PGL stressed their investment into hospitality for the events, promising $450,000 of hospitality budget per event.
Players will hope that PGL’s enticements will ensure they have adequate facilities, are well-rested, and (above all) well-remunerated. But rosters in modern CS do not attend Tier-1 events without an org backing them, and therein lies the crux of why PGL’s gambit might not pay off.
ESL’s Louvre Agreement became the foundation on which Tier-1 contracts were negotiated. The agreement allowed organizations to guarantee revenue which in turn allowed organizations to attract players with larger wages. With wages guaranteed, the players relied less upon prize money. While the partner system is formally ending, the contracts negotiated under it remain, leaving many organizations with high wage bills and little chance of recovering that money through the org’s share of prize money. Essentially the current business model of the partner teams necessitates revenue-sharing, therefore ESL & BLAST remain in prime position to attract Counter-Strike’s most valuable organizations even if individual events are at a disadvantage in terms of prize money, and therefore Valve Ranking points.
📢 Exciting news for CS2 fans! 🌍
— PGL (@pglesports) August 27, 2024
🎯 Get ready for PGL CS2 2025-2026 Ranked Global Tournaments Across Iconic Landmarks!
📰 Find out all the locations, dates, and details here: https://t.co/I6rvnrODiG#PGLCS2 pic.twitter.com/L52U5VSJ0P
Non-partners
Inversely, teams who were not partnered with ESL or BLAST naturally would not have models based on that agreement. Smaller wages for non-partner teams may make large prize-money events more attractive for players. Additionally, non-partner teams will go into 2025 with the disadvantage of having attended fewer prestigious events in 2024. If a non-partnered team’s rank is low at the start of the year, they may not get invited to the first few ESL or BLAST events, making any loyalty system irrelevant to such teams.
Teams like Eternal Fire, The MongolZ, or SAW may find themselves being favorites in LAN tournaments with millions on the line in the absence of previously partnered teams who commit to ESL & BLAST events. The good news is that ESL & BLAST events are no longer exclusive clubs; organizations will be invited to ESL events providing they rank highly enough in the Valve standings, but teams like Eternal Fire may prefer other events over the traditionally partnered tournaments.
PGL Astana, for example, ends a day before IEM Dallas ’25 begins. IEM Dallas ’24 had a total prize pool of $250,000, so even doubling the prize money for Dallas ’25 would be less than half of the PGL events. If an organization does not greatly benefit from revenue share due to its business model or if the players have the majority of the power in picking events, those teams may choose to favor a PGL, Star-Series, or a Yalla Compass tournament. The result, therefore, may be a bifurcated circuit.
The paradox of 2025 is that no ranking has ever been as important to Counter-Strike as an esport as Valve Regional Standings will be, yet the prestige attached to rankings may fall next year as an asymmetric circuit emerges. Even in recent weeks, we have seen the community react with confusion and aggravation at The MongolZ climbing to number 5 in the Valve rankings. The MongolZ’s $500,000 reward at the Thunderpick World Championship 2024 at the LAN finals propelled them to one of the top 5 earners of 2024. The consequences of the result provided a preview of what we will see next season – some teams playing Valve’s game and reaping the ranking rewards, while others stick to traditional events. Fans will have to accept the new reality, that when event invites come next year it will be Valve rankings that will count.
2025 represents a real challenge both to Valve’s ranking system and to the community when evaluating teams. We may have to let go of the concept that we can know who the best team in the world is. For years we have seen partner teams play each other extremely regularly, making such an assessment relatively easy. In 2025, teams will be playing different events, and sometimes vastly different numbers of events. With previously partnered teams allegedly sticking to the ESL & BLAST circuits, teams may dominate their respective events without testing their mettle against the best and reach high rankings. Some teams will grind out events to maximize their potential ranking, others may prioritize their player welfare and settle for a rank once it guarantees major qualification.
With such a jumbled picture, there may be only one type of event that provides clarity to the picture. The two times a year when top teams come together to determine the very best – the Counter-Strike majors
It’s almost like Valve planned it all along…
